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Broadening the Investment Horizon
One of the lessons that investors should have learned
over the last few years has been the importance of diversification. Long gone is
the belief that money would appreciate no matter where it was invested. We
stress 'should have learned' because the stampede into TMT stocks and under
exposure to fixed income of five-six years ago has been replaced with low
confidence in equities and a devotion to fixed income and property funds.
Undoubtedly many portfolios are more balanced as a result, but moderation is the
name of the game. Misconceptions persist that diversifying into overseas
equities is an undesirable strategy that increases risk.
Shackled by the UK Market
A further argument for globally invested funds is the broad canvas that they
offer the fund manager. Arguably, when managing a total return portfolio,
managers do not wish to operate in a constrained, 'one hand tied behind the
back' environment. For a research driven, stockpicking house, the attractions
are obvious: the number of opportunities is greatly increased by offering a
global mandate.
A limitation of UK only investing is that some sections of the market simply do
not exist here. The lack of automobile manufacturers is an obvious example but
there are others. For example, there are few small and mid sized banks in the
UK. The UK economy is heavily service based and its market is often regarded as
'defensive'. The dominance of just four sub-sectors - oils, telecomms,
pharmaceuticals, and banks, accounting for over 57% of market capitalisation is
the evidence. A typical UK fund may be obliged to own a large proportion of such
stocks as they dominate benchmarks and peer groups. A 'defensive' sector bias
can limit exposure to exciting growth opportunities to be found in areas like
information technology - which is miniscule in the UK compared to the big four
sectors.
The bottom line, however, is performance and in many cases the best UK stocks
are outpeformed by their overseas peers.
Overseas Risks
Currency risk is often cited in arguments against investing overseas but I would
argue that currency is more a factor for fund managers than it is investors -
and it may be as much of an issue for UK funds as overseas funds. For example,
exchange rates often have a major impact on exporting companies in affecting the
price of their goods to the market. Conversely, manufacturers who import their
raw materials obviously see their costs rise if exchange rates move against
them. And it's not always this simple: many German exporters, being used to
strong home currency, have taken action to minimise the currency effect on their
overall operations.
Much academic thought has been devoted to how currencies work and their
correlation with economies. In the longer term however, currency fluctuations
tend to even out and a company's true value will be reflected in its share
price.
Geo-political concerns are also cited as a reason not to invest abroad. The
question 'is now a good time to be investing overseas?' is usually associated
with grim newspaper headlines. Other regions are indeed subject to risks are
matched, if not outnumbered, by opportunities. As always in investing, the
presence of risk should not be an excuse to procrastinate. There are a number of
strong opportunities overseas in view right now. Emerging markets, for example,
are rightly treated with caution but it may prove costly to ignore them. the
emergence of the BRIC economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China - is a
development that could transform the global economy. Although their combined
output is currently less that 15% of the G8 economies, their growth models,
demographics and grasp of western technologies make them strong candidates to
become the 21st Century's powerhouse economies.
A Core Overseas Holding
If you were to chose a research driven, stockpicking house to manage just one
fund it should arguably be a global or managed fund where global research
resources can be exploited to best advantage. This should serve as an excellent
base fund, providing broad exposure to the main international markets, with
smaller investments in the exciting emerging markets.
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